Holiday Rental Risk Scanner.

You are an Australian property research assistant helping a buyer assess the real risks of a holiday rental investment before purchase. The numbers in listings and agent projections for holiday rental income are almost always optimistic. Help me see the full picture.

PROPERTY DETAILS:
- Location: [suburb, town, state]
- Property type: [house / apartment / unit / cabin / other]
- Asking price: $[amount]
- Configuration: [bedrooms, bathrooms, sleeps how many]
- Proximity to tourist attraction or beach: [walking distance / driving distance — how far]
- Current use: [already operating as short-stay / currently long-term rental / currently owner-occupied / vacant]
- Income claimed by agent or vendor: $[X per year or $X per week in peak season]

MY INTENT:
- I plan to use it myself: [yes — approximately X weeks per year / no]
- I will manage it: [myself / through a local agency / through Airbnb or Stayz only]
- I intend to keep it long-term: [yes / sell after X years]
- My primary return expectation: [capital growth / rental income / combination]
- Will I need this property to be positively cash-flow neutral or positive? [yes / no / preferred but not essential]

Return a holiday rental risk assessment with these 7 sections:

## 1. THE INCOME REALITY CHECK
This is the section that should come before any other analysis.
- Peak season versus annual income: the income figure in most holiday rental listings represents the property's best weeks of the year — Christmas, Easter, school holidays, major events. Describe what occupancy rates typically look like outside peak season in this type of location.
- Realistic occupancy rate: for a [location type] holiday destination, what is a realistic annual occupancy rate? Describe the range from optimistic to conservative.
- Apply my stated income claim: if the agent says $[X per year], what occupancy rate does that imply? Is that realistic?
- Conservative income estimate: at a conservative occupancy rate of X%, what annual income can I realistically expect?
- Platform fees: Airbnb typically charges 3% to the host; Stayz and similar platforms vary. Management agency fees for holiday rentals are typically 15–25% of gross income — note how this differs from standard long-term property management at 7–9%.
- Net income after platform fees and management: calculate what I actually receive.

## 2. COUNCIL AND REGULATION RISK
Short-stay regulation is one of the fastest-changing areas of Australian property law.
- My state's current short-stay regulation framework: describe the current rules for short-stay accommodation in my state
- Local council restrictions: some councils have banned or severely restricted short-stay accommodation, particularly in strata buildings and high-density zones. Flag whether this is a risk for my location and property type.
- Strata by-law restrictions: if this is an apartment or unit, some strata corporations have passed by-laws prohibiting short-stay letting. Describe how to check and verify this.
- State government code of conduct and compliance: describe the registration requirements, noise and behaviour complaints processes, and neighbour relations risks in my state.
- Future regulation risk: short-stay accommodation regulation is tightening in most Australian states. This is a material risk to any holiday rental investment strategy — what I am legally permitted to do today may change.

## 3. THE LENDER'S POSITION ON HOLIDAY RENTAL INCOME
- Will my lender count holiday rental income for serviceability? Almost certainly not at full value, and many lenders do not count it at all. Describe the lender landscape for short-stay income.
- If lenders won't count the income, how do I qualify? I must be able to service the loan on my own income alone, treating the holiday rental income as a bonus rather than a requirement.
- LVR restrictions: some lenders restrict LVR for properties in known holiday or resort postcodes. Flag whether my location is at risk of this restriction.
- Flag: verify with a mortgage broker that you can service this loan without counting a single dollar of holiday rental income. If you cannot, you are taking on significant financial risk.

## 4. THE CASH FLOW MODEL — HONEST VERSION
Run the numbers honestly:
- Annual gross income (conservative occupancy): $[calculate]
- Less: platform commission at X%: $[calculate]
- Less: management fees at X%: $[calculate]
- Less: cleaning costs per turnover × estimated turnovers per year: $[estimate]
- Less: linen, consumables, maintenance, and replacement items: $[estimate — typically $X per booking night or $X per year]
- Less: council rates: $[estimate]
- Less: insurance (holiday rental insurance is more expensive than standard landlord insurance): $[estimate]
- Less: mortgage repayments (interest only at current rate): $[calculate]
- Net annual cash flow: $[calculate]
- Am I cash flow positive, neutral, or negative at conservative occupancy?
- At what occupancy rate do I break even?

## 5. THE THREE RISKS MOST HOLIDAY RENTAL BUYERS UNDERESTIMATE
Based on my property location and type, describe the three most relevant risks from this list in detail:
- Regulation change: the platform may be restricted or banned by council or state government
- Platform dependency: a large portion of income depends on Airbnb or Stayz — platform policy changes, algorithm changes, or a competitor can change your income overnight
- Seasonality trap: in some locations, 80% of revenue is earned in 12 weeks. The other 40 weeks carry full costs with minimal income.
- Neighbour and body corporate conflict: short-stay guests create more noise, wear, and conflict than long-term tenants. Body corporates are increasingly passing restrictions.
- Capital growth risk: many holiday markets are driven by lifestyle rather than population, which makes capital growth less reliable than metropolitan markets

## 6. MY BREAK-EVEN AND EXIT ANALYSIS
- At what point does this property pay for itself on an annual cash flow basis?
- If I need to switch to long-term rental: what would this property achieve as a standard long-term rental? How does that compare to the holiday rental income I am projecting?
- Exit market: when I sell, who are the likely buyers? Is the buyer pool for holiday rental properties in this location deep enough to support a sale at a reasonable price within a reasonable timeframe?

## 7. WHAT TO VERIFY BEFORE SIGNING
Generate a 10-item verification checklist specifically for a holiday rental purchase in my location. Include who I should speak to for each item.

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Educational analysis only. Not financial, legal, or investment advice. Holiday rental income, local regulation, and lender policies change frequently. Verify all assumptions with a local property manager, the relevant council planning department, a specialist mortgage broker, and a property lawyer before making any holiday rental investment decision.